FA Cup Outright Winner Odds for 2025/26

Diving Deep into the Chances of Who Will Win the FA Cup 2026?

The FA Cup rarely follows the obvious script just take a look at last years winners where Crystal Palace beat Manchester, who could have predicted that Palace would win their first ever FA Cup - no one except perhaps the most optimistic palace fan themselves. One injury, one winter pitch, one flash of brilliance and suddenly a favourite is out and a new storyline begins with a minnow. With the 2025/26 FA Cup 3rd round draw upcoming in December, here's a form-agnostic, squad-profile view of who looks tough enough to go the distance, who can ruin the big boys fun, and which lower-league sides could write the next chapter of giant-killing history.

Strong Contenders

Manchester City

City remain the obvious favorite even though they crashed out in the final last year. Their squad depth allows them to rotate heavily without losing quality, a luxury few sides possess.

Even their second eleven side can dominate possession and destroy lower-league opposition. Their main weakness is fixture congestion; with European duties, fatigue could hit key players. Still, Pep's system control and technical dominance make them hard to eliminate.

Arsenal

Still the leading trophy holders with 14 trophies in the competition, Arsenal's blend of youth and experience continues to mature. Their tactical balance and set-piece improvements make them more adaptable in one-off ties.

Arteta's side press relentlessly, but they can also manage games better now than in past seasons. If they avoid City until the semi-finals, they have a real chance to go all the way.

Liverpool

Liverpool thrive in chaos, and the FA Cup loves chaos. Klopp's rotation players often step up in domestic competitions, and their counter-pressing intensity turns small margins their way.

Youth integration gives them unpredictability, though defensive lapses remain possible. When their energy peaks at the right time, few can stop them.

Manchester United

Manchester United's reliance on moments of brilliance from their forwards keeps them dangerous in knockout formats.

If their midfield balance improves and defensive errors are cut down, they can go deep. The Cup could easily become their best route to silverware this season. We are pretty sure they would love to move up into the 1st place side by side with Arsenal for most trophies won in the FA Cup but the odds are certainly stacked against them.

Chelsea

Chelsea's young side is volatile yet talented enough to beat anyone on a good day.

If they can find rhythm and confidence under pressure, a late-season surge into the semi-finals is not out of reach.

Serious Challengers

• Tottenham Hotspur – Their attacking style and confidence under pressure make them dangerous. If they learn to close games out, Spurs could finally turn promise into silverware.
• Newcastle United – Organized, intense, and powerful on set pieces. Their energy and crowd-driven momentum make them a nightmare draw.
• Aston Villa – Emery's structured system and strong defensive core translate well to Cup football. They can frustrate bigger teams and strike efficiently on the counter.
• Brighton & Hove Albion – Brave, technical, and fearless. Their youth-driven approach means they'll attack anyone, regardless of stature.
• West Ham United – Pragmatic and physical. Their aerial strength and counter-punching style make them a textbook Cup side.

Dark Horses With Real Bite

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Wolves are well-drilled out of possession and lethal in transition. They frustrate elite sides who expect to dominate. With clinical finishing and a touch of luck, a quarter-final or even semi-final run feels realistic.

Crystal Palace

The current holders, can they keep hold of the cup this year, the FA Cup odds say no with them being 33/1 to keep the cup! Palace can squeeze games tight and explode forward through pace on the wings. Selhurst Park's atmosphere can tilt tight matches. One big home win could turn them into this year's Cinderella story.

Brentford

Brentford are tactically flexible, disciplined, and smart from dead-ball situations. They can out-think bigger clubs in one-off ties, especially at home where their data-driven game plans shine.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth's organized pressing and team spirit give them a puncher's chance against anyone. If their forwards hit form, they could easily knock out a Premier League heavyweight.

Classic Giant-Killers

Look to the Championship and League One for the traditional upsets. Clubs with tall strikers, long throws, and powerful set pieces thrive against technically superior sides on heavy winter pitches.

Teams with recent experience beating top-flight opposition have an edge: their players approach Premier League opponents with belief rather than awe. Managers with a clear plan for recovery and rotation often take these clubs to the fourth or fifth round unexpectedly.

Key Factors That Decide the Cup

• Fixture congestion – Heavy schedules force rotation, giving underdogs a shot when bigger sides juggle Europe.
• Set pieces – Many knockout ties are decided by restarts. Sides with well-rehearsed routines win the small battles that matter.
• Goalkeeper form – A hot keeper can steal a tie. Penalty shootouts turn shot-stoppers into heroes and villains overnight.
• Draw luck – Avoiding the giants early matters. A smooth path to the quarters can turn an average run into a dream campaign.

Verdict

If you want the safest bet, it's still one of the big three: Manchester City, Arsenal, or Liverpool. Their squads, depth, and tactical maturity make them the likeliest finalists.

Tottenham and Newcastle sit just behind, capable of a statement run if consistency holds. Aston Villa, meanwhile, look built for knockout football and could easily make a surprise final.

For genuine dark-horse drama, watch Wolves and Crystal Palace. Both have Cup-ready styles and the belief to shock anyone.

The FA Cup doesn't reward reputation-it rewards clarity and composure. The team that masters set pieces, rotation, and grit will be celebrating under Wembley's arch in May.